Extrapolation of Taulbee Survey Data

Each year, the Computing Research Association sponsors the Taulbee Survey of Ph.D. schools. While this survey covers many topics, one focus involves the plans of new Ph.D.s in computer science and computer engineering. While the survey includes various categories for positions, this page focuses on possible conclusions for schools whose highest degree is at the Masters or Bachelors level. While the Taulbee Survey publishes results on the basis of surveys completed, what follows also gives one possible extrapolation for all schools and new Ph.D.s.

Taulbee Survey -- Raw Data

1996-1997 1997-1998 1998-1999 1999-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002
Ph.D. Departments Surveyed 162 182 203 214 215 225
Departments Responding 135 (83%) 144 (77%) 156 (77%) 173 (81%) 173 (80%) 182 (80%)
   
Academic Positions
   Ph.D.-Granting Schools 237 274 293 273 294 351
       Tenure-Track 111 140 172 158 157 187
       Research 49 59 47 52 54 48
       Post Docs 55 55 45 40 56 83
       Instructors 22 20 29 23 27 33
   Other (Masters' and Bachelors') Schools 42 31 27 29 32 13
   
Industry/Self Employed 437 409 402 365 377 267
Government 27 30 19 21 13 18
Abroad 43 41 23 26 31 31
Unknown/Unemployed 108 148 88 160 186 167
   
Totals
    Known Employment 786 785 764 714 747 680
    Overall 894 933 852 881 933 847

Taulbee Survey -- Extrapolations to 100%

1996-1997 1997-1998 1998-1999 1999-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002
Academic Positions
   Ph.D.-Granting Schools 300 380 425 405 450 535
       Tenure-Track 140 195 240 235 240 285
       Research 60 80 70 75 85 70
       Post Docs 70 75 70 60 85 130
       Instructors 30 30 45 35 40 50
   Other (Masters' and Bachelors') Schools 60 45 35 45 50 20
   
Industry/Self Employed 530 570 565 540 575 405
Government 35 40 20 30 20 30
Abroad 55 55 35 40 50 50
Unknown 20 20 20 20 20 20
   
Totals
    Known 980 1080 1080 1060 1145 1040
    Overall 1000 1100 1100 1080 1165 1060

Notes

  1. All extrapolations are rounded to the nearest five and should be regarded as rough estimates -- at best.

  2. These extrapolations are based on extending the proportions from the raw data to include the schools which did not respond. Also, the proportions of various known categories were used to place most of those listed as "Unknown" in the original surveys.

  3. Extrapolations for 1996-1997 largely reflect presentations made at the 1998 Snowbird Conference.

  4. Extrapolations for 1997-1998, 1998-1999, 1999-2000, and 2000-2001 reflect my own computations, based primarily on extending maintaining proportions of known categories to the larger populations.

  5. Direct comparison of raw results from year to year are difficult for at least two reasons. The number of schools sent surveys has increased somewhat over time. (For example, the 2001-2002 survey was sent to 225 schools, while the 2000-2001 survey was sent to 215 schools.) Also, the response rate and the specific schools returning surveys varies from year to year. Thus, while the survey base is steadily increasing, individual numbers may vary from year to year due to specifics on which schools responded. (For example, the raw data show an increase in the number of Ph.D.s from 1998-1999 to 1999-2000, but this increase is more than explained by an increase in the number of schools surveyed and then reporting. The number of schools surveyed increased 5.4%, from 203 to 214; and the number of schools responding jumped from 156 to 173, a 10.9% increase.)

  6. While the number of new Ph.D. decreased somewhat this past year, the overall totals for 2001-2002 seem comparable to 1999-2000. However, the distribution was significantly different.

  7. Looking at somewhat different data over a longer term, the authors of the 2001-2002 Taulbee Survey note that that the number of CS/CS Ph.D.s awarded in 2002 "is the lowest number since 1989. (Computing Research News, March 2002, page 6.)" On the other hand, the same authors note that "all other numbers indicate a strong growth in the Ph.D. supply in the next few years." For example, they cite increases in the number entering Ph.D. programs, the number enrolled in Ph.D. programs, and the number passing qualifiers.

This document is available on the World Wide Web as 

    http://www.cs.grinnell.edu/~walker/dept/taulbee-97-02.html

 

created April 11, 2000
last revised March 26, 2003 by Henry M. Walker at walker@cs.grinnell.edu. 		Valid HTML 4.01!