Math 336: Probability and Statistics II: Spring 2009
Tom Moore, instructor
Office: Science 2515
Phone: 4206
Email: mooret
Course home page: http://www.math.grin.edu/~mooret/courses/math336/336.html
Assessment
We will have regular homework assignments, three exams, and a final project.
The final course project you will devise on your own, with consultation from me. I prefer that you work with a partner on the project. By Friday, February 27, you should give me a project proposal. Before that time and as soon as possible I would like for you to consult with me about project ideas as they occur to you.
Monday, January 19
Re-read section 5.3 on confidence intervals for a population proportion.
Wednesday, January 21
Read section 5.4.
Friday, January 23
Read section 5.5.
Hand in: Use the data in 5.3.20 to find a 95% confidence interval using three methods: (a) Wald, i.e., Theorem 5.3.1, (b) Wald with Finite Population Correction Factor (FPCF), and (c) the "Plus-4" interval, without the FPCF. Now assume that a sample of size 15 found just 1 success. Use methods (a) and (c) from the previous exercise to find a 95% confidence interval for true proportion of success. Also hand in: 5.4.1, 5.4.2, 5.4.3, 5.4.7, 5.4.8, (5.2.1, 5.2.4, 5.2.8, 5.2.10, 5.2.18, 5.2.19, 5.3.17, 5.3.23).
Monday, January 26
Read section 5.5.
Wednesday, January 28
Read sections 6.1 and 6.2.
Hand in: Weekly Problems #1.
Friday, January 30
Read section 6.3.
Hand in: 5.4.12, 5.4.13, 5.4.20, 5.5.2, 5.5.4, 5.5.6, (5.4.6, 5.5.3, 5.5.5)
Monday, February 2
Read section 6.4.
Wednesday, February 4
Read Section 6.6.
Hand in Weekly Problems #2.
Friday, February 6
Hand in: 5.8.3, 6.2.7, 6.2.10, 6.3.1, 6.3.2, 6.3.6, (6.2.1, 6.2.3, 6.2.5, 6.2.11, 6.3.4, 6.3.8).
Monday, February 9
Read sections 7.1, and 7.2.
Wednesday, February 11
Read section 7.3
Hand in: Weekly Problems #3.
Friday, February 13
Read section 7.4.
Hand in: 6.3.7, 6.4.7. 6.4.12, 6.4.13, 6.4.21, (6.3.3, 6.4.4, 6.4.14).
Monday, February 16
Read sections 7.5 and 7.6.
Hand in: 7.3.4, 7.3.6, 7.4.4, 7.4.7, 7.4.18, (7.3.9, 7.3.11, 7.3.14, 7.4.8, 7.4.15, 7.4.20). Note: You may use R to compute means and standard deviations, but for these early exercises, you should show the rest of the calculations by hand.
Wednesday, February 18
Read Chapter 8.
Hand in Weekly Problem #4: Sal is pizza inspector for the city health department. Recently he has received a number of complaints directed against a certain pizzeria for allegedly failing to comply with their advertisements. The pizzeria claims that, on the average, each of their large pepperoni pizzas is topped with 2 ounces of pepperoni. The dissatisfied customers feel that the actual amount of pepperoni used is considerably less. To settle the matter, Sal decides to use a significance test. First he assumes the distribution of pepperoni weights is normal with mean mu (ounces) and a known standard deviation of 0.5 ounces. What minimum sample size would Sal need in order to have an alpha=.05 and to have a power of .80 when mu=1.8? Find the sample size, n, give the decision rule, and provide a graph of the power function. (Modify the powerz function to draw the power curve.)
Friday, February 20
Review for exam.
Monday, February 23
Exam 1, in class. Bring a calculator.
Wednesday, February 25
Read: Chapters 1, 2, and 19 from Statistics, by Freedman, Pisani, Purves, and Adhikari, second edition, (on reserve in Burling under Math 115, or in the Departmental lounge).
Hand in: From the FPPA book, hand in these problems: Pages 22-24, numbers 3, 9, 11, and 12. On 12, make up a fictitious data set illustrating your answer. Pages 323-324, numbers 3, 4, and 9.
Friday, February 27
Read sections 9.1 and 9.2.
Hand in: 7.5.8, 7.5.9, 8.2.2, 8.2.4, 8.2.6, 8.2.12, 8.2.14, 8.2.22, (7.5.1-7.5.6).
Monday, March 2
Read sections 9.4 and 9.5
Hand in: 9.2.4, 9.2.5, 9.2.10, 9.2.13. Note: Do 9.2.4 and 9.2.5 by hand; verify with R. ALSO on these problems, find 95% confidence intervals for difference in means.
Wednesday, March 4
Read sections 10.1 - 10.3.
Hand in Weekly Problems #5.
Friday, March 6
Read sections 10.4, 10.5, and 10.6.
Hand in: 9.2.6, 9.2.15, 9.4.3, 9.5.2, 10.2.2, (9.2.3, 9.4.4, 9.4.7, 9.5.3, 9.5.4, 9.5.6, 10.2.1). Note: Use R to do 9.2.15; use both var.equal=T and var.equal=F and compare answers.
Monday, March 9
Read sections 11.1 and 11.2.
Hand in: 10.3.8, 10.3.9, 10.3.12, 10.4.3, 10.5.2, (10.2.3, 10.3.7, 10.3.10, 10.3.11).
Wednesday, March 11
Read section 11.3.
Friday, March 13
Read section 11.4.
Hand in: 10.4.1, 10.5.6, 11.2.2 (by hand), (10.4.2, 10.4.4, 10.4.6, 10.5.5).
Monday, March 30
Review sections 11.3 and 11.4.
Wednesday, April 1
Read section 11.5.
Hand in Weekly #6: Prove the results of Theorem 11.3.2 that relate to Beta_0. That is prove
part a (normality), part b (unbiasedness), and part c (variance).
Friday, April 3
Read sections 12.1 and 12.2.
Monday, April 6
Hand in: 11.2.1&11.3.3 (Use R for basic calculations), 11.3.16, 11.3.18, 11.3.24, (11.3.2, 11.3.15). Note: On 11.3.16, you may use R to get regression coefficients, s, and the mean and standard deviation of Weight. Then do the rest by hand. Also, write an interpretive statement for both (a) and (b) so it is clear that you understand the difference between the two.
Wednesday, April 8
Exam 2, in class. Bring a calculator.
Friday, April 10
No Assignment.
Monday, April 13
Read sections 12.3 and 12.4.
Wednesday, April 15
Hand in Weekly #7, which is this: